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Anticipating the medium- and long-term trajectory of pathogen emergence has acquired new urgency given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For many human pathogens, the burden of disease depends on age and previous exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. Here, we develop a realistic age-structured mathematical model that integrates demography, social mixing, and immunity to establish a plausible range for future age incidence and mortality. With respect to CO