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Background To date the European experience with COVID-19 mortality has been different to the observed in China and Asia. We aimed to forecast mortality trends in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU), plus Switzerland and the United Kingdom (UK), where lockdown dates and confinement interventions have been heterogeneous, and to explore its determinants. Methods We have adapted our predictive model of COVID-19-related mortality, which rested on the observed mortality within the first weeks of the outbreak and the date of the respec
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