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We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre-COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethiopia but also a high probability of moving from vulnerable nonpoor status to poor status. Given the observed persistence of poverty and greater risk of downward mobility, even in the pre-COVID period, it is highly likely that poverty persiste
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