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13, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 2.33 - 4.21), neutrophil count (OR 1.05, 95 %CI 1.04 - 1.06), metabolic acidosis (bicarbonate value, OR 0.82, 95 %CI 0.78 - 0.85), and endoscopic injury (OR 3.81, 95 %CI 3.35 - 4.34) were independent risk factors for poor outcome. The prognostic score based on these variables provided better accuracy than endoscopy alone ( = 0.04), with high sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (93.3 %, 92.7 %, 72.7 %, 98.5 %, respectively), and area under the curve (0.976, 95 %CI 0.973 - 0.9
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